Russia in Review, Aug. 11-18, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The first of 22,000 spent nuclear submarine fuel rods arrived Aug. 16 from Andreyeva Bay in the Russian Arctic at the Mayak reprocessing facility in the Ural Mountains. (Bellona, 08.17.17)
  • To help experts make reliable conclusions about nuclear forensic signatures, the IAEA in August 2017 published a new technical document highlighting novel analytical techniques used by experts around the world. (IAEA, 08.10.17)
  • Washington-based organization Energy Future Initiatives, led by former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, has called for greater federal-level recognition of the importance of America’s nuclear energy supply chain to national security. They recommend immediate government action to support and encourage existing and future new-build projects and to strengthen the supply chain. (World Nuclear News, 08.18.17)
  • The NNSA and the FBI recently teamed up to provide the Turkish National Police with radiation detection systems and training that will enhance their capabilities to detect smuggled nuclear and radiological materials. (NNSA, 08.11.17)
  • Ukrainian state nuclear corporation Energoatom this week hosted the working group created five years ago to achieve a zero-failure rate of nuclear fuel. The group visited the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. (World Nuclear News, 08.18.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow hopes Iran will not quit the 2015 nuclear deal in return for the lifting of most economic sanctions. Lavrov spoke Aug. 16 after Iranian President Hassan Rohani's Aug. 15 warning that Tehran could abandon the deal "within hours" if the United States imposed any more new sanctions. (RFE/RL, 08.16.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • Disarmament experts have urged Europe to help halt a new Cold War in which global powers have begun a new conventional and nuclear arms race, Germany's foreign minister said on Aug. 16. "They told us we are now repeating the worst mistakes of the Cold War and are in the middle of a Cold War 2.0," Sigmar Gabriel said. (Reuters, 08.16.17)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

  • Russia’s Federal Security Service said on Aug. 14 it has thwarted suicide bombings in Moscow planned by the Islamic State. Four people have been arrested on suspicion of plotting attacks on Moscow’s transit system and shopping malls. The arrested included two would-be suicide bombers, an Islamic State envoy and an expert in explosives. One is a Russian national and three others are from ex-Soviet Central Asia. (AP, 08.14.17)
  • The Far Eastern District Military Court has sentenced a resident of Khabarovsk to five years in jail for assisting terrorist activity. (TASS­, 08.13.17)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Backed by Russia and Iran, the Syrian government hopes to steal a march on U.S.-backed militias attacking Islamic State's last major Syrian stronghold, the Deir al-Zor region. Damascus hailed the capture of the town of al-Sukhna on Aug. 12 as a big step in that direction. The eastward march to Deir al-Zor has underlined Assad’s ever more confident position and the dilemma facing Western governments that still want him to leave power in a negotiated transition. (Reuters, 08.17.17)
  • The Syrian army and its allies advanced in the central Syrian desert on Aug. 14 and could soon encircle an Islamic State pocket. They have also taken a number of villages around the town of al-Koum in the northeastern Homs province. (Reuters, 08.14.17)
  • Bouthaina Shaaban, an advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has said the war is nearly over as foreign states cut backing for rebels, and vowed the government would confront any "illegitimate" forces, whether Turkish or American. (Reuters, 08.18.17)
  • Syria’s government forces supported by Russia’s air task force have liberated twice as much territory over the past two months as the area under Damascus’ control in 2015, Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergey Shoigu said. The Russian military says its aircraft are supporting a Damascus offensive against the Islamic State near the town of Akerbat in the Hama province. (AP, 08.18.17, RFE/RL, 08.13.17, TASS, 08.15.17)
  • Syrian government forces have for the first time captured a settlement from the Islamic State as a result of an air landing operation. Russian military advisers participated in the preparation and control of the landing operations at the El-Kder settlement. (TASS, 08.15.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani have discussed issues related to bilateral cooperation during a telephone call. According to the Kremlin press service, "while exchanging views on various aspects of the situation in Syria, the parties confirmed their willingness to continue [to] coordinate joint efforts aimed at resolving the crisis." (TASS, 08.14.17)
  • Russian and U.S. diplomats and militaries continue professional pragmatic contacts on Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (Interfax, 08.14.17)
  • A meeting on Syria will take place in Astana in early September. The parties will try finalizing agreement on the de-escalation area near Idlib, which is presenting negotiating difficulties related to disagreements between Turkey and Iran “on the ground.” (Interfax, 08.14.17)
  • The United Nations hopes for a "serious negotiation" between Damascus and a still-to-be-formed unified Syrian opposition in October or November. (Reuters, 08.17.17)
  • A promise by Syria in 2013 to surrender its chemical weapons averted U.S. air strikes. Many diplomats and weapons inspectors now believe Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime appeared to cooperate, but secretly maintained or developed a new chemical weapons capability. (Reuters, 08.17.17)
  • In recent months, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has become an icon for America’s far right, whose leaders and spokesman have heaped praise on the ferocity with which Assad has prosecuted the war, his role in fighting the Islamic State and his perceived stance against Muslims and Jews. (The Washington Post, 08.14.17)

Cyber security:

  • A hacker, known only as “Profexer,” went dark in January—just days after American intelligence agencies publicly identified a program he had written as one tool used in the Democratic National Committee hacking. Profexer, who turned himself in early this year according to the Ukrainian police, has now become a witness for the FBI. There is no evidence that Profexer worked, at least knowingly, for Russian intelligence, but his malware apparently did. (New York Times, 08.16.17)
  • In the summer of 2016, WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange turned down a large cache of documents related to the Russian government. (Foreign Policy, 08.17.17)
  • The June cyberattack that shut down shipping firm AP Moller-Maersk’s computer systems around the world will cost the Denmark-based company $200 million to $300 million. The company said it and many other global firms were hit on June 27 by a malware later known as NotPetya. (AP, 08.16.17)
  • Russia’s Communications Ministry has proposed limiting foreign ownership over internet exchange points to 20%, following similar restrictions to Russian media holdings in 2014. (The Moscow Times, 08.18.17)
  • A Kazakh-born man accused of working with Russian intelligence officials to hack more than a half-billion Yahoo e-mail accounts has agreed to waive an extradition hearing in Canada and will go to the United States to face the charges. (RFE/RL, 08.18.17)

Elections interference:

  • In a sign that the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election will remain a continuing distraction for the White House, special counsel Robert Mueller is in talks with the West Wing about interviewing current and former senior administration officials, including recently ousted White House chief of staff Reince Priebus. (New York Times, 08.12.17)
  • Sen. Richard Burr, the initially reluctant but now determined leader of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s Russia investigation, said the investigation had expanded beyond its original scope based on new evidence, but he hoped to complete it this year to allow Congress to take steps to prevent future efforts at tampering by Moscow. (New York Times, 08.12.17)
  • As early as March 2016, a low-level Trump campaign aide claimed that the Russian president was trying to meet then-candidate Donald Trump and his campaign. From March to October, aide George Papadopoulos presented some seven requests from people who claimed to be tied to the Russian government who wanted to meet with Trump and his team. (The Washington Post, 08.15.17)
  • Another of the Trump administration’s Russia connections is between U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and one of Russia’s most powerful and influential billionaires, Roman Abramovich. They have met three to four times in social settings, and their wives have been friends for a decade. (The Washington Post, 08.18.17)
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry says that allegations that Moscow meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections are groundless, as there have been no criminal cases brought in the United States against those who allowed such alleged meddling. (Reuters, 08.17.17)
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed this week that $500 million in cash had been shipped from the United States to Moscow ahead of the 1996 presidential elections, which incumbent Boris Yeltsin eventually won in the second round. The money was guarded by CIA agents and then distributed to “some private individuals,” TASS quoted Zakharova as saying. Zakharova didn’t back her claims with any evidence. Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets made a similar claim in February 1998. A story, headlined “$500,000,000 From U.S. Embassy” and available in Factiva in English, claimed that the U.S. Embassy in Moscow was involved in the sale of $500 million to Russian banks to finance Yeltsin's 1996 election campaign. (Russia Matters, 08.17.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Gazprom said Aug. 14 that new U.S. sanctions against Moscow would not result in changes to key projects, although they could cause delays. (Reuters, 08.14.17)
  • OPEC won’t clear the global oil glut any time soon, since any increase in price continues to bolster rival production from U.S. shale. (Bloomberg, 08.15.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • The acquisition of a 51% stake in Russia's Eurasia Drilling Co. by U.S. oilfield services giant Schlumberger "has big problems" in the current political situation. (Reuters, 08.16.17)

Other bilateral issues:

  • Washington has no legal grounds to close Russian consulates in the United States, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (The Moscow Times, 08.14.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump said he was joking when he thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for ordering deep cuts in U.S. diplomatic staff in Russia because it saves the United States money. (RFE/RL, 08.12.17)
  • Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Anatoly Antonov is to assume the duties of Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. on Sept. 1, according to Kommersant. (Russia Matters, 08.16.17)
  • A U.S. report on religious freedoms puts Russia on a par with countries like North Korea and Sudan in its treatment of religious minorities. (The Moscow Times, 08.16.17)
  • “In the economic area, we’ll probably see some limited counter sanctions (by Russia),” George Beebe, director of the intelligence program at the Center for the National Interest, said. “In the intelligence area, I think we’re going to see an escalation. We’ll see an escalation in the intelligence war that’s going on between our intelligence services.” (The National Interest, 08.16.17)
  • A survey by the Pew Research Center showed that respondents in 22 out of 36 countries trusted Russian President Vladimir Putin more than U.S. President Donald Trump when it comes to handling global affairs. That includes American allies like Germany, France and Japan. Trump edged out Putin in the U.K., India and Israel. (Bloomberg, 08.17.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Economic growth reached an annual rate of 2.5% in Russia in the second quarter, the fastest in almost five years. (Financial Times, 08.11.17)
  • Last year Russia received $12.9 billion in foreign direct investment, making it the third-largest recipient of FDI in Europe after the U.K. and France. Non-residents held 30.7% of total federal government debt as of June 1—up from only 3.7% in January 2012. The proportion is above 50% in bonds issued last year and this year, and even higher—more than 70%—in bonds with a maturity above seven years. (Financial Times, 08.11.17)
  •  “The pattern of the [Russian] population’s behavior is gradually shifting from saving mode to consumption,” said Evgeny Koshelev, an analyst at Rosbank. (Bloomberg, 08.16.17)
  • Russia and its neighboring post-Soviet states have improved their business environment more than anywhere else on the planet since 2010, according to a World Bank report. (Financial Times, 08.12.17)
  • Russia's economy ministry is continuing with the sale of state assets despite new U.S. sanctions and this week closed the bidding from banks for advising on the privatization of United Grain Company. (Reuters, 08.18.17)
  • Russian diamond giant Alrosa says rescuers have abandoned a search for four of eight missing workers at a flooded diamond mine in eastern Siberia. (RFE/RL, 08.15.17)
  • Russia’s Justice Ministry on Aug. 17 added the Jehovah’s Witnesses to a registry of banned organizations after the group was labeled extremist by the country’s Supreme Court. The Jehovah's Witnesses' translation of the Bible has also been banned. (The Moscow Times, 08.17.17, RFE/RL, 08.18.17)
  • Russian human rights organization Memorial has declared Russian protester Stanislav Zimovets a political prisoner. Zimovets, a 32-year-old Chechen War veteran, was convicted of throwing a rock at a National Guard officer during an unsanctioned anti-corruption protest organized by opposition politician Alexei Navalny in central Moscow on March 26.  (The Moscow Times, 08.14.17)
  • Alexei Navalny says the alleged son of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is living a life of luxury well beyond his apparent means. (RFE/RL, 08.17.17)
  • A Levada Center poll shows 49% of Russians believe that their nation should re-establish its authority “as one of the most influential countries in the world, without which not a single important question can be solved.” (Levada Center, 08.17.17)
  • The Kremlin’s food embargo, an August 2014 response to U.S. sanctions on Russia, have led to the return of a common habit for Russians in the 1990s: shopping for food on vacation outside Russia. (U.S. News, 08.18.17)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia may consider building a new early-warning radar in Crimea, most likely at the site where the Soviet Union deployed a Dnepr radar. (Russianforces.org, 08.15.17)
  • Russia’s Space and Air Defense Forces conducted a successful launch of a Proton-M launcher from Baikonur to put Cosmos-2520 into orbit. The payload is apparently the "heavy communication satellite" also known as Blagovest. It is the first in a series of at least four satellites of this type. (RussianForces.org, 08.17.17)
  • Russian cosmonauts released on Aug. 17 a satellite made almost entirely with a 3-D printer in a first for the space program. (RFE/RL, 08.17.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Russian authorities say Khadzhimurad Gadzhiyev, the leader of an armed criminal group known as the Khunzakh gang, has been killed in Dagestan during a security operation in the western village of Orota on Aug. 13. (RFE/RL, 08.14.17)
  •  The mothers of several missing Chechen men have turned to European rights groups for help in finding their sons amid fears that some may have been killed by authorities in the southern Russian region. (RFE/RL, 08.11.17)
  • Former Russian economic development minister Alexei Ulyukayev, on trial for allegedly accepting a $2 million bribe, publicly accused head of Rosneft Igor Sechin on Aug. 16 of setting him up. (AP, 08.16.17)
  • A Russian military court on Aug. 18 found former Russian intelligence officer Vladimir Kvachkov guilty of inciting hatred and sentenced him to an additional prison term on top of his current sentence for an alleged attempt to overthrow the government. (RFE/RL, 08.18.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week Russia is against further tightening sanctions on North Korea, warning that economic pressure on Pyongyang has reached its limit. Lavrov earlier estimated the risk of a military conflict between North Korea and the U.S. as being “very high.” (The Moscow Times, 08.11.17, AP, 08.16.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump says in a tweet that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “made a very wise and reasonable decision” amid indications his country has decided not to proceed with its multiple missile launch toward Guam. (AP, 08.16.17)
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warned it would be “game on” for war if North Korea fired missiles that hit the U.S. or its territories, including Guam. (Bloomberg, 08.14.17)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said Washington remains interested in a dialogue with Pyongyang, adding that it is up to North Korean leader Kim Jung Un to decide if he wants to talk to the United States. (RFE/RL, 08.15.17)
  • North Korea has the ability to domestically produce the engines that power its ballistic missiles, raising new concerns about the technological sophistication of the country’s weapons programs. An assessment by U.S. intelligence officials contradicts an independent study suggesting the engines were probably built in Ukrainian or Russian factories and obtained illicitly. The New York Times earlier reported that North Korea’s success in testing an ICBM that appears capable of reaching the United States was made possible by black-market purchases of powerful RD-250 rocket engines probably from Ukraine’s Yuzhmash factory, which has historical ties to Russia’s missile program. Ukrainian denied such sales, but Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered a probe nevertheless. (New York Times, 08.14.17, RFE/RL, 08.14.17, AP, 08.15.17, Financial Times, 08.16.17)
  • Powerful Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar has met with Russia's foreign and defense ministers in Moscow. Russia backs the efforts by Haftar and the prime minister of Libya's U.N.-recognized government, Fayez al-Sarraj, to reach a peace agreement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Libyan strongman in remarks released by the Foreign Ministry after the two met Aug. 14. (RFE/RL, 08.14.17)
  • German political parties campaigning for elections next month are competing to attract 2 million voters with roots in the former Soviet Union, amid concerns that Russian propaganda could sway votes in the community. The biggest push for votes has come from the far-right Alternative for Germany, which has six Russian-German candidates on its party slate, and whose leaders have had two meetings with the community in recent weeks. (Reuters, 08.16.17)
  • Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder hit back at criticism of his planned new job at Rosneft, accusing his foes of political maneuvering to help get Angela Merkel re-elected. (Reuters, 08.17.17)
  • Russian Railways said it was keeping plans to order additional trains from Siemens despite a row between Russia and the German firm over sanctions violations.  (Reuters, 08.16.17)
  • Sweden's armed forces will get an extra 8.1 billion crowns ($1 billion) over the coming three years to boost defense capabilities in the face of increased tension with Russia in the Baltics. (Reuters, 08.16.17)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the crisis in Venezuela should be resolved peacefully and without external intervention. (Reuters, 08.16.17)

China:

  • Dimitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote: “Bolstering ties with China and keeping the relationship friendly are major priorities; forging an alliance with Beijing, in which Moscow would be the junior partner, is not.” (Carnegie Moscow Center, 08.10.17)

Ukraine:

  • Reductions in the U.S. State Department budget would lower funding for Europe and Eurasia by $336 million, as well as other programs covering support for democracy and development assistance. Nations affected include Estonia, Georgia and Ukraine. Additionally, the White House is urging an increase in spending at the Department of Defense, some of which is earmarked for Eastern Europe. $1.4 billion more is headed to the European Reassurance Initiative, but details currently available don’t give a breakdown by country. While Ukraine’s 2018 aid via the State Department is set to plunge by a third, it is also in line to receive $150 million for training and equipment to “defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” (Bloomberg, 08.15.17)
  • Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will visit Ukraine on Aug. 24 as the Trump administration considers giving Ukraine lethal weaponry, a plan endorsed by the Pentagon and the State Department. Awaiting Trump and his closest advisers is an authorization to provide Ukraine with anti-tank and potentially anti-aircraft capabilities. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has earlier said he expects defense agreements to be signed with the U.S. soon. "And very important agreements will be signed, including agreements on defense cooperation, including an agreement on defense procurement and an agreement on military-technical cooperation," Poroshenko said. (New York Times, 08.18.17, Reuters, 06.12.17, AP, 08.14.17)
  • U.S. military instructors have completed training Ukrainian servicemen who will train Ukrainian artillerists to be deployed in Donbas, according to Gazeta.ru. (Russia Matters, 08.16.17)
  • The joint Ukrainian-U.S. project of building a Ukrainian naval center at the Ochakiv base in the Mykolaiv region does not envision stationing foreign vessels there, the Ukrainian Navy said. (Interfax, 08.15.17)
  • Ukrainian Naval Forces marines took part in Platinum Lion 2017, a multinational military exercise held in Bulgaria. The aim of participating in the event was for the marines to acquire coordinated action skills as part of a multinational unit in line with NATO standards. (Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 08.14.15)
  • Moscow has noticed Washington's growing inclination toward possible lethal weapons supplies to Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (Interfax, 08.15.17)
  • Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov and U.S. State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker may meet in Minsk. (Interfax, 08.15.17)
  • A Russian court has found Ukrainian citizen Artur Panov guilty of planning a terrorist attack in the city of Rostov-on-Don and sentenced him to 8 years in prison on terrorism charges. (RFE/RL, 08.11.17)
  • Russia’s main intelligence agency says it has detained a Ukrainian intelligence agent, Gennady Limeshko, who was plotting acts of sabotage in Russia-occupied Crimea. (AP, 08.14.17)
  • Ukrainian authorities have deported Russian journalist Tamara Nersesian over national security concerns. (RFE/RL, 08.15.17)
  • The Committee to Protect Journalists has condemned the "harassment" of reporters in Ukraine after security services raided the offices of independent news website Strana.ua and a member of parliament criticized the head of the national press union for his response to the raid. (RFE/RL, 08.15.17)
  • The state-appointed lawyer defending former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in his in-absentia treason trial has quit. (RFE/RL, 08.17.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Russia will hold joint war games later this year with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in response to regional threats. (AP, 08.18.17)
  • Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev signed a decree enabling citizens to travel abroad without permission as of Jan. 1, 2019. (RFE/RL, 08.16.17)
  • A human rights group says that Akmurat Rejepov, who was Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov's longtime security chief and was arrested after the autocrat's death, died a week ago after 10 years held incommunicado in prison. (RFE/RL, 08.17.17)
  • A Kyrgyz court has sentenced opposition leader Omurbek Tekebaev and his co-defendant to eight years in prison each on corruption charges. (RFE/RL, 08.16.17)
  • Georgia's president and prime minister issued separate statements voicing hope for reconciliation on the 25th anniversary of the outbreak of war over the breakaway Abkhazia region. (RFE/RL, 08.14.17)
  • Georgia has requested that Ukraine extradite Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Georgian president and ex-governor of Ukraine's Odessa region who was stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship last month. (RFE/RL, 08.18.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • “Sanctions are never reduced,” said Christopher Granville, a managing director at TS Lombard. “Unless Russia becomes a client state of the U.S.—an expectation that surfaced after the collapse of the Soviet Union but that will never come true—there will always be grievances.” (Financial Times, 08.11.17)
  • “I have mentioned before an idea that may be an empty dream, but if NATO were to shift its headquarters to Moscow, it might allay whatever misapprehensions Russians may feel,” the Dalai Lama said in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper. (The Moscow Times, 08.16.17)
  • “There is not now and never has been a single piece of technical evidence produced that connects the malware used in the DNC attack to the GRU, FSB or any agency of the Russian government,” said Jeffrey Carr, the author of a book on cyberwarfare. (New York Times, 08.16.17)