Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
article

Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory: The Fantasy of Russian Defeat and the Case for Diplomacy

Barry R. Posen July 08, 2022 Recommended Reads
At present, the most plausible result after months or years of fighting is a stalemate close to the current battle lines.
article

The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine War

John J. Mearsheimer June 23, 2022 Recommended Reads
The United States has pushed forward policies toward Ukraine that Putin and other Russian leaders see as an existential threat, a point they have made repeatedly for many years.
article

The Russia-Ukraine War: A Setback for Arms Control

Steven Pifer May 23, 2022 Recommended Reads
The Kremlin seems intent on achieving a victory on the battlefield, while relations between the West and Russia plummet to new lows. One casualty: U.S.-Russian arms control negotiations.
article

The Russian Military’s People Problem

Dara Massicot May 18, 2022 Recommended Reads
The culture of indifference to its personnel fundamentally compromises the Russian military’s efficacy, no matter how extensively it has been modernized.
article

Can Russia Be Made to Pay for Ukraine?

Sam Fleming, Joseph Cotterill, James Politi and Robin Wigglesworth May 17, 2022 Recommended Reads
Scholars and lawyers are warning the decision to confiscate frozen Russian foreign exchange reserves, while tempting, would be fraught with risk, legally questionable and could generate unintended consequences.
article

No Marshall Plan For Ukraine

Benn Steil May 13, 2022 Recommended Reads
Long-term, credible internal and external security is a precondition for a successful Marshall Plan in Ukraine, and the United States and its allies are incapable of providing it.
article

Putin’s Perilous Imperial Dream

Cristina Florea May 10, 2022 Recommended Reads
Underpinning Putin’s righteous battle for Russians in Ukraine is an organic vision of Russian nationhood defined by blood and cultural and spiritual traits rather than by political contract or choice.
article

Putin’s Invasion Was Immoral but Not Irrational

Mark F. Cancian May 10, 2022 Recommended Reads
Evaluating Putin’s decision requires capturing what was known at the time, not what became evident later.
report

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment

World Bank May 01, 2022 Recommended Reads
The war has direct effects on the firms operating in Russia and Ukraine and on firms relying on suppliers from those markets. But the shock caused by the war goes well beyond these two countries, as geopolitical risks have increased globally.
article

Would Putin’s Russia Really Nuke Ukraine?

Graham Allison April 22, 2022 Recommended Reads
If a nuclear strike killed 10,000 or 20,000 innocent Ukrainians, how would the United States or NATO respond?
article

Do People in Donbas Want to Be ‘Liberated’ by Russia?

John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal and Gwendolyn Sasse April 15, 2022 Recommended Reads
In January 2022, the authors conducted a large, computer-assisted telephone public opinion survey of people living in the two regions on both sides of the military line of contact.
article

The Cyber-Escalation Fallacy

Erica D. Lonergan April 15, 2022 Recommended Reads
For all its potential to disrupt companies, hospitals and utility grids during peacetime, cyberpower is much harder to use against targets of strategic significance or to achieve outcomes with decisive impacts on the battlefield or during crises short of war.