• To be sure, the offensive has already brought Kyiv some obvious benefits. 
  • It has given Ukrainian morale a much-needed boost and helped counter concerns that Kyiv was trapped in a war of attrition against a larger adversary that it could neither defeat nor outlast. 
  • It put the war back on the front pages and strengthened voices calling for increased Western support.
  •  t exposed serious flaws in Russian intelligence and readiness and may have embarrassed Russian President Vladimir Putin, although there’s no sign that the incursion has reduced his resolve or slowed Russian advances in the Donbas.
• It’s heartening to see Ukraine enjoy some battlefield successes, but this operation is unlikely to affect the outcome of the war.
  • Ukraine has now seized about 400 square miles of Russian territory and forced roughly 200,000 Russians to evacuate these areas. These figures amount to 0.0064 percent of Russia’s total land area and 0.138 percent of its population. By contrast, Russia now controls roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, and the war has reportedly forced nearly 35 percent of Ukraine’s population to flee their homes. Even if Kyiv can hang on to the territory it has recently seized, it won’t provide much of a bargaining chip.
• It follows that Ukraine’s fate will be determined primarily by what happens in Ukraine, and not by the Kursk operation. The key factors will be each side’s willingness and ability to keep sacrificing on the battlefield, the level of support Ukraine receives from others, and whether a deal can eventually be struck that leaves the unoccupied parts of Ukraine intact and secure. 
• The Kursk offensive raises at least two other issues.
  • The first and most obvious lesson is a reminder of Russia’s limited reach and underwhelming military performance. 
  • Second, several commentators—including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—have suggested that Kyiv’s successful incursion into Russia shows that existing red lines and other restrictions on Ukrainian operations should be discarded and that the West should let Ukraine take the fight to Russia however it wishes. … But the claim that there is no risk of escalation no matter what Ukraine does should be firmly rejected. 
• Pushing for a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine war is one of those instances in which self-interest and morality are aligned. 

Read the full article at Foreign Policy.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. Photo by www.mil.gov.ua shared under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.