The author writes:

• As of mid-October, Ukraine’s counter-offensive has not fulfilled the (perceived) objective of cutting Russia’s land-bridge; the minimalist goal is to create a forward position to create fire control over supply routes in the land-bridge (M-14 and railway) and prepare for 2024. As of now, the following scenarios could be possible:
  • Fortress Ukraine (longer war)
  • Freezing (Minsk 3)
  • Expansion (Breaking East)
  • Ukraine victory (Putin’s regime collapse)
  • Russian victory (Encircling Kyiv)
• There are several key factors determining what scenario will develop in the end.
  •  One of those is the state of the Russian economy and society
  • Another one is Ukraine’s cohesion
  • Finally, Western unity is the most complex issue of all. 
• U.S. Sen. Graham’s open “encouragement” about elections despite the war is a signal of the return to the consistent US policy since Kuchma’s times – power sharing. The fight against corruption, and corresponding corruption scandals, is back in the limelight. Ukraine is back on track with its dual fight: the war against Russia and the internal one about its own governance system, at a time when circumstances are getting more and more fragile. 
• The whispering in Kyiv’s political circles is that “winning the peace” might be harder than fighting the war, as reconstruction requires more than resilience. Ukraine needs a vision beyond fighting, one that would be inclusive enough – yet also secure enough – for the post-Russia world it will live from now on.

Read the full article on Europe's Futures website.

The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. Photo by President of Ukraine shared under public licence.